Somalia
The forecast leans towards a wetter-than-normal December–February in Somalia (47% chance). Past El Niño years show no consistent rainfall pattern here.
Leaning wetter
10% drier · 43% normal · 47% wetter
Likely warmer
>95% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
No clear pattern
+45% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
67 Moderate
Worst day: Mogadishu, 17 November 2026
Current events in Somalia
No current flood, drought, cyclone, large wildfire or unhealthy-air event is listed for Somalia in our sources.
Headlines about Somalia
- 'Risk multiplier': super El Niño looms over Cop31 as climate pattern fuels global disasterstheguardian.com · 15 Nov
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
In the tropics, seasonal forecasts generally have useful skill during strong El Niño years, but they give odds, not certainties. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What Somalia emits, and how it makes electricity
Somalia emitted 1.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry in 2025, or 0.1 tonnes per person. That is up 75% since 1990.
1.4 Mt
0.1 t
+75%
+111%
Electricity by source, 2024
- Other fossil 79%
- Wind 2%
- Solar 19%
Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project, Ember and the Energy Institute (CC BY 4.0). CO2 from fossil fuels and industry; land use not included.
Smoke and haze, next 4 days
Daily average fine particles (PM2.5) on the US EPA air-quality index.
| City | Nov 15 | Nov 16 | Nov 17 | Nov 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MogadishuCapital | 28Good | 62Moderate | 67Moderate | 67Moderate |
| Kismaayo | 23Good | 22Good | 32Good | 35Good |
| Jamaame | 23Good | 23Good | 40Good | 37Good |
| Baydhabo | 34Good | 50Good | 54Moderate | 56Moderate |
| Jawhar | 35Good | 58Moderate | 61Moderate | 63Moderate |
AQI: US EPA 24-hour PM2.5 scale (2024). Model forecast for an area of about 40 km, not a local measurement. Local levels can be higher or lower. Dates are UTC days. Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | No consistent pattern (about 45% more rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | No consistent pattern (about 15% more rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | No consistent pattern (about 5% less rain on average) | +0.5 °C | |
| Mar–May | No consistent pattern (about 6% less rain on average) | +0.5 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | Wetter in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 8% more rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| May–Jul | No consistent pattern (about 16% more rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | Wetter in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 8% more rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | No consistent pattern (about 11% more rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | Wetter in 9 of 12 El Niño seasons (about 63% more rain on average) | +0.0 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | Wetter in 12 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 71% more rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | Wetter in 11 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 70% more rain on average) | -0.2 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | No consistent pattern (about 59% more rain on average) | +0.0 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
What you can do
If it turns out wetter
- Find out whether your home, school or workplace is in a flood-risk area, and know your evacuation route.
- Clear gutters and drains before the rainy months.
- Keep important documents, medicines and a torch in a waterproof bag.
- After heavy rain, avoid walking or driving through flood water and follow local advice on drinking water and mosquito-borne disease.
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for Somalia”, The Climate Map, https://howstheclimate.org/country/somalia/, updated 15 November 2026.
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