El Niño Advisory
El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than a 79% chance).
+2.46°C
Rated very strong. The last 24 overlapping seasons:
The measure
How El Niño strength is rated
The Oceanic Niño Index is the three-month average sea-surface temperature difference from normal in the central Pacific. NOAA declares an El Niño when it stays at +0.5 °C or more for five overlapping seasons.
| Weak | +0.5 to +0.9 °C |
|---|---|
| Moderate | +1.0 to +1.4 °C |
| Strong | +1.5 to +1.9 °C |
| Very strong | +2.0 °C and above |
The record
Every El Niño since 1982
| Event | Peak index | Peak season | Length (seasons) |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMJ 2026 – ASO 2026 Ongoing | +2.46 °C | ASO 2026 | 5 |
| MJJ 2023 – MAM 2024 | +1.99 °C | NDJ 2023 | 11 |
| SON 2019 – FMA 2020 | +0.75 °C | NDJ 2019 | 6 |
| ASO 2018 – MJJ 2019 | +1.05 °C | NDJ 2018 | 10 |
| SON 2014 – AMJ 2016 | +2.59 °C | NDJ 2015 | 20 |
| JJA 2009 – FMA 2010 | +1.5 °C | NDJ 2009 | 9 |
| ASO 2006 – DJF 2007 | +0.88 °C | OND 2006 | 5 |
| JAS 2004 – JFM 2005 | +0.71 °C | NDJ 2004 | 7 |
| JJA 2002 – JFM 2003 | +1.19 °C | OND 2002 | 8 |
| AMJ 1997 – MAM 1998 | +2.37 °C | NDJ 1997 | 12 |
| SON 1994 – JFM 1995 | +0.97 °C | NDJ 1994 | 5 |
| MJJ 1991 – MJJ 1992 | +1.54 °C | DJF 1992 | 13 |
| ASO 1986 – DJF 1988 | +1.49 °C | ASO 1987 | 17 |
| AMJ 1982 – MJJ 1983 | +2.14 °C | DJF 1983 | 14 |
For the ongoing event, “peak” is the highest value so far. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index (ERSSTv5).
Log
Status updates
| 12 November 2026 | NOAA status: El Niño Advisory |
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