El Niño Advisory Oceanic Niño Index +2.46 °C · very strong NOAA, 12 November 2026 Next update 10 December 2026
The Climate Map
Seasonal outlook · Issued November 2026

December–February: where it is likely to be wetter or drier

Odds from the Copernicus seasonal forecast, averaged over each country. Select a country to open its six-month page.

World map of the rainfall outlook for December–FebruaryZimbabwe: likely drierZambia: likely drierYemen: likely wetterVietnam: likely drierVenezuela: likely drierVanuatu: likely drierUzbekistan: likely wetterUruguay: likely wetterFederated States of Micronesia: likely drierMarshall Islands: likely drierNorthern Mariana Islands: likely drierUnited States Virgin Islands: likely wetterGuam: likely drierAmerican Samoa: likely drierPuerto Rico: likely wetterUnited States: likely wetterAnguilla: likely wetterCayman Islands: likely wetterBermuda: likely wetterBritish Virgin Islands: likely wetterTurks and Caicos Islands: likely wetterJersey: likely wetterGuernsey: likely wetterIsle of Man: leaning wetterUnited Kingdom: no clear signalUnited Arab Emirates: likely wetterUkraine: likely wetterUganda: likely wetterTurkmenistan: likely wetterTurkey: leaning wetterTunisia: likely drierTrinidad and Tobago: likely drierTonga: likely drierTogo: likely drierTimor-Leste: likely drierThailand: no clear signalTanzania: leaning wetterTajikistan: likely wetterTaiwan: likely wetterSyria: leaning wetterSwitzerland: leaning wetterSweden: likely wetterKingdom of eSwatini: leaning drierSuriname: likely drierSouth Sudan: leaning wetterSudan: no clear signalSri Lanka: no clear signalSpain: likely wetterRepublic of Korea: likely wetterSouth Africa: likely drierSomalia: leaning wetterSomaliland: likely wetterSolomon Islands: leaning wetterSlovakia: likely wetterSlovenia: likely wetterSingapore: likely wetterSierra Leone: likely drierSeychelles: likely wetterSerbia: likely wetterSenegal: leaning wetterSaudi Arabia: leaning wetterSão Tomé and Principe: likely drierSan Marino: leaning wetterSamoa: likely drierSaint Vincent and the Grenadines: likely drierSaint Lucia: likely drierSaint Kitts and Nevis: no clear signalRwanda: likely wetterRussian Federation: likely wetterRomania: likely wetterQatar: leaning wetterPortugal: likely wetterPoland: leaning wetterPhilippines: likely drierPeru: likely wetterParaguay: likely wetterPapua New Guinea: likely wetterPanama: likely drierPalau: likely drierPakistan: leaning wetterOman: likely wetterNorway: no clear signalDem. Rep. Korea: likely wetterNigeria: likely drierNiger: likely drierNicaragua: likely drierNew Zealand: likely wetterCook Islands: likely drierNetherlands: likely wetterAruba: likely drierCuraçao: likely drierNepal: no clear signalNauru: likely wetterNamibia: likely drierMozambique: likely drierMorocco: leaning wetterWestern Sahara: leaning wetterMontenegro: likely wetterMongolia: likely wetterMoldova: leaning wetterMonaco: leaning wetterMexico: leaning wetterMauritius: no clear signalMauritania: leaning wetterMalta: likely drierMali: no clear signalMaldives: likely wetterMalaysia: likely drierMalawi: likely drierMadagascar: likely drierNorth Macedonia: no clear signalLuxembourg: likely wetterLithuania: likely wetterLiechtenstein: leaning wetterLibya: likely drierLiberia: likely drierLesotho: likely drierLebanon: leaning drierLatvia: likely wetterLao PDR: no clear signalKyrgyzstan: likely wetterKuwait: leaning wetterKosovo: leaning wetterKiribati: likely wetterKenya: likely wetterKazakhstan: likely wetterJordan: leaning wetterJapan: likely wetterJamaica: likely wetterItaly: leaning wetterIsrael: no clear signalPalestine: leaning wetterIreland: no clear signalIraq: likely wetterIran: likely wetterIndonesia: leaning wetterIndia: no clear signalIceland: likely drierHungary: likely wetterHonduras: likely drierHaiti: likely wetterGuyana: likely drierGuinea-Bissau: leaning wetterGuinea: leaning drierGuatemala: likely drierGrenada: likely drierGreece: likely drierGhana: likely drierGermany: likely wetterGeorgia: likely wetterThe Gambia: leaning wetterGabon: likely drierFrance: no clear signalWallis and Futuna Islands: likely drierSaint-Martin: likely wetterFrench Polynesia: leaning wetterNew Caledonia: likely drierÅland Islands: likely wetterFinland: leaning wetterFiji: likely drierEthiopia: likely wetterEstonia: leaning wetterEritrea: leaning wetterEquatorial Guinea: likely drierEl Salvador: leaning drierEgypt: leaning drierEcuador: likely wetterDominican Republic: likely wetterDominica: likely drierDjibouti: likely wetterGreenland: likely drierFaeroe Islands: leaning drierDenmark: likely wetterCzech Republic: leaning wetterNorthern Cyprus: likely drierCyprus: likely drierCuba: likely wetterCroatia: likely wetterCôte d'Ivoire: likely drierCosta Rica: likely drierDemocratic Republic of the Congo: no clear signalRepublic of the Congo: leaning drierComoros: no clear signalColombia: no clear signalChina: likely wetterMacao: likely wetterHong Kong: likely wetterChile: likely drierChad: likely drierCentral African Republic: likely drierRepublic of Cabo Verde: no clear signalCanada: leaning wetterCameroon: likely drierCambodia: likely drierMyanmar: leaning drierBurundi: likely wetterBurkina Faso: no clear signalBulgaria: no clear signalBrunei Darussalam: likely drierBrazil: likely drierBotswana: likely drierBosnia and Herzegovina: likely wetterBolivia: likely drierBhutan: likely drierBenin: leaning drierBelize: likely drierBelgium: likely wetterBelarus: likely wetterBarbados: likely drierBangladesh: no clear signalBahrain: leaning wetterBahamas: likely wetterAzerbaijan: likely wetterAustria: leaning wetterAustralia: likely drierArmenia: likely wetterArgentina: likely wetterAntigua and Barbuda: no clear signalAngola: likely wetterAndorra: leaning wetterAlgeria: likely drierAlbania: leaning wetterAfghanistan: likely wetterSint Maarten: likely wetterTuvalu: likely wetter
  • Likely drier
  • Leaning drier
  • No clear signal
  • Leaning wetter
  • Likely wetter

“Likely” means one outcome has at least 50% odds; “leaning”, 40–50%.
How the odds are calculated

Strongest signals

Largest countries with the clearest outlook

CountryOdds, December–FebruaryPer cent
ArgentinaLikely wetter >95%
CubaLikely wetter >95%
EcuadorLikely wetter >95%
NicaraguaLikely drier >95%
PhilippinesLikely drier >95%
MalaysiaLikely drier 94%
HondurasLikely drier 92%
ParaguayLikely wetter 92%

Countries of 5 million people or more. Small islands rest on a single forecast cell and are left out of this list.

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Regional outlooks

All countries

Sources and credits · Download the data (CSV)