Ecuador
Odds favour a wetter-than-normal December–February in Ecuador (over 95% chance). Past El Niño years show no consistent rainfall pattern here.
Likely wetter
<5% drier · <5% normal · >95% wetter
Likely warmer
>95% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
No clear pattern
+9% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
64 Moderate
Worst day: Quito, 17 November 2026
Current events in Ecuador
No current flood, drought, cyclone, large wildfire or unhealthy-air event is listed for Ecuador in our sources.
Headlines about Ecuador
- Ecuador Rain Floods Hit Three Provincesriotimesonline.com · 14 Nov
- El Niño vs. Polar Vortex: A winter weather showdown - PortageOnline.com - Local news, Weather, Sports, Free Classifieds and Job Listingsportageonline.com · 14 Nov
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
In the tropics, seasonal forecasts generally have useful skill during strong El Niño years, but they give odds, not certainties. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What Ecuador emits, and how it makes electricity
Ecuador emitted 45.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry in 2025, 0.12% of the world total, or 2.5 tonnes per person. That is up 150% since 1990.
45.7 Mt
2.5 t
+150%
+44%
Electricity by source, 2025
- Gas 3%
- Other fossil 18%
- Hydro 78%
- Wind <1%
- Solar <1%
- Other renewables <1%
Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project, Ember and the Energy Institute (CC BY 4.0). CO2 from fossil fuels and industry; land use not included.
Smoke and haze, next 4 days
Daily average fine particles (PM2.5) on the US EPA air-quality index.
| City | Nov 15 | Nov 16 | Nov 17 | Nov 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QuitoCapital | 37Good | 50Good | 64Moderate | 43Good |
| Guayaquil | 20Good | 28Good | 34Good | 33Good |
| Cuenca | 36Good | 24Good | 29Good | 29Good |
| Ambato | 34Good | 13Good | 35Good | 14Good |
| Portoviejo | 9Good | 4Good | 8Good | 8Good |
AQI: US EPA 24-hour PM2.5 scale (2024). Model forecast for an area of about 40 km, not a local measurement. Local levels can be higher or lower. Dates are UTC days. Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | No consistent pattern (about 9% more rain on average) | +0.6 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | No consistent pattern (about 7% more rain on average) | +0.6 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | Wetter in 7 of 10 El Niño seasons (about 15% more rain on average) | +0.8 °C | |
| Mar–May | Wetter in 7 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 19% more rain on average) | +0.8 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | Wetter in 7 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 15% more rain on average) | +0.6 °C | |
| May–Jul | Wetter in 7 of 9 El Niño seasons (about 18% more rain on average) | +0.7 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | No consistent pattern (about 5% more rain on average) | +0.5 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | No consistent pattern (about 7% more rain on average) | +0.5 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | No consistent pattern (about 9% more rain on average) | +0.4 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | Wetter in 11 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 13% more rain on average) | +0.4 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | Wetter in 13 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 21% more rain on average) | +0.4 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | Wetter in 11 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 18% more rain on average) | +0.5 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
Known El Niño effects in Ecuador
From national agencies and the UN. Each line links to its source.
- Past events
- During the 1997–98 event, heavy rain hit Ecuador's coast, causing landslides and heavy surf that affected coastal communities. JRC eNatech natural hazard record, ENSO 1997/05
- The 1997–98 El Niño killed 286 people in Ecuador. Circle of Blue, 'Ecuador Touts Flood Prevention Measures Amid Record Rains' (30 Mar 2017)
- About 45,000 hectares were flooded in Cañar province and the Naranjal River basin during the 1997–98 El Niño. Circle of Blue, 'Ecuador Touts Flood Prevention Measures Amid Record Rains' (30 Mar 2017)
What you can do
If it turns out wetter
- Find out whether your home, school or workplace is in a flood-risk area, and know your evacuation route.
- Clear gutters and drains before the rainy months.
- Keep important documents, medicines and a torch in a waterproof bag.
- After heavy rain, avoid walking or driving through flood water and follow local advice on drinking water and mosquito-borne disease.
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for Ecuador”, The Climate Map, https://howstheclimate.org/country/ecuador/, updated 15 November 2026.
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