South America
Rainfall and temperature odds for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season, for all 12 countries and territories.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Drier / normal / wetter | Past El Niños | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Likely wetter | <5% / <5% / >95% |
No clear pattern | No clear signal |
| Bolivia | Likely drier | 78% / 20% / <5% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Brazil | Likely drier | 88% / 10% / <5% |
13 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
| Chile | Likely drier | 82% / 18% / <5% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Colombia | No clear signal | 27% / 38% / 35% |
13 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
| Ecuador | Likely wetter | <5% / <5% / >95% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Guyana | Likely drier | >95% / <5% / <5% |
13 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
| Paraguay | Likely wetter | <5% / 8% / 92% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Peru | Likely wetter | <5% / 14% / 82% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Suriname | Likely drier | >95% / <5% / <5% |
14 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
| Uruguay | Likely wetter | <5% / 10% / 90% |
No clear pattern | Likely cooler |
| Venezuela | Likely drier | 75% / 23% / <5% |
13 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (seasonal forecast, ERA5); NOAA Climate Prediction Center (El Niño seasons). Methods