Polynesia
Rainfall and temperature odds for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season, for all 7 countries and territories.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Drier / normal / wetter | Past El Niños | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Samoa | Likely drier | 94% / 6% / <5% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Cook Islands | Likely drier | >95% / <5% / <5% |
13 of 15 drier | Likely cooler |
| French Polynesia | Leaning wetter | 20% / 39% / 41% |
12 of 15 wetter | Likely warmer |
| Samoa | Likely drier | >95% / <5% / <5% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Tonga | Likely drier | 90% / 8% / <5% |
13 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
| Tuvalu | Likely wetter | <5% / 20% / 80% |
11 of 15 wetter | Likely warmer |
| Wallis and Futuna Islands | Likely drier | >95% / <5% / <5% |
11 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (seasonal forecast, ERA5); NOAA Climate Prediction Center (El Niño seasons). Methods