Tuvalu
Odds favour a wetter-than-normal December–February in Tuvalu (80% chance). That matches the past: 11 of 15 El Niño seasons since 1980 were wetter than usual here.
Likely wetter
<5% drier · 20% normal · 80% wetter
Likely warmer
>95% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
11 of 15 wetter
+27% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
55 Moderate
Worst day: Funafuti, 17 November 2026
Current events in Tuvalu
No current flood, drought, cyclone, large wildfire or unhealthy-air event is listed for Tuvalu in our sources.
Headlines about Tuvalu
No climate headlines mentioning Tuvalu were found in the last two weeks.
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
In the tropics, seasonal forecasts generally have useful skill during strong El Niño years, but they give odds, not certainties. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere. This place is smaller than one forecast grid cell, so the nearest cell is used.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What Tuvalu emits, and how it makes electricity
Tuvalu emitted 10 thousand tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry in 2025, or 1.3 tonnes per person.
0.0 Mt
1.3 t
–
–
Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project, Ember and the Energy Institute (CC BY 4.0). CO2 from fossil fuels and industry; land use not included.
Smoke and haze, next 4 days
Daily average fine particles (PM2.5) on the US EPA air-quality index.
| City | Nov 15 | Nov 16 | Nov 17 | Nov 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FunafutiCapital | 28Good | 49Good | 55Moderate | 32Good |
AQI: US EPA 24-hour PM2.5 scale (2024). Model forecast for an area of about 40 km, not a local measurement. Local levels can be higher or lower. Dates are UTC days. Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | Wetter in 11 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 27% more rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | Wetter in 12 of 13 El Niño seasons (about 30% more rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | Wetter in 9 of 10 El Niño seasons (about 27% more rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Mar–May | Wetter in 7 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 14% more rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | No consistent pattern (about 8% more rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| May–Jul | No consistent pattern (about 10% more rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | No consistent pattern (about 2% more rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | No consistent pattern (about 18% more rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | No consistent pattern (about 22% more rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | No consistent pattern (about 24% more rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | No consistent pattern (about 13% more rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | No consistent pattern (about 14% more rain on average) | +0.3 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
What you can do
If it turns out wetter
- Find out whether your home, school or workplace is in a flood-risk area, and know your evacuation route.
- Clear gutters and drains before the rainy months.
- Keep important documents, medicines and a torch in a waterproof bag.
- After heavy rain, avoid walking or driving through flood water and follow local advice on drinking water and mosquito-borne disease.
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for Tuvalu”, The Climate Map, https://howstheclimate.org/country/tuvalu/, updated 15 November 2026.
Embed this outlook on your site
Free to use with the credit link that is built in.