South Africa
Odds favour a drier-than-normal December–February in South Africa (71% chance). That matches the past: 11 of 15 El Niño seasons since 1980 were drier than usual here.
Likely drier
71% drier · 25% normal · <5% wetter
Likely warmer
>95% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
11 of 15 drier
-25% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
78 Moderate
Worst day: Johannesburg, 17 November 2026
Current events in South Africa
No current flood, drought, cyclone, large wildfire or unhealthy-air event is listed for South Africa in our sources.
Headlines about South Africa
- EU accused of delaying Africa's $120bn climate adaptation lifelinedailymaverick.co.za · 15 Nov
- Citrus exports decline: War, floods squeeze SA growersthesouthafrican.com · 15 Nov
- WEATHER: Thunderstorms and flooding expected on Sunday in Gautengthesouthafrican.com · 15 Nov
- Super El Niño could leave South Africa short of grazing. Timing of livestock fodder crops is crucialtheconversation.com · 15 Nov
- From heatwave to thunderstorm: Heavy downpours expected in these areasenca.com · 15 Nov
- COP31 needs researchers engaged in the work of changeuniversityworldnews.com · 15 Nov
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
Away from the tropics, seasonal rainfall forecasts have limited skill. Treat small shifts in the odds as weak signals. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What South Africa emits, and how it makes electricity
South Africa emitted 460.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry in 2025, 1.18% of the world total, or 7.1 tonnes per person. That is up 47% since 1990.
460.1 Mt
7.1 t
+47%
+10%
Electricity by source, 2025
- Coal 81%
- Other fossil <1%
- Nuclear 4%
- Hydro <1%
- Wind 5%
- Solar 8%
- Other renewables <1%
Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project, Ember and the Energy Institute (CC BY 4.0). CO2 from fossil fuels and industry; land use not included.
Smoke and haze, next 4 days
Daily average fine particles (PM2.5) on the US EPA air-quality index.
| City | Nov 15 | Nov 16 | Nov 17 | Nov 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JohannesburgCapital | 55Moderate | 71Moderate | 78Moderate | 63Moderate |
| Cape TownCapital | 55Moderate | 56Moderate | 54Moderate | 68Moderate |
| PretoriaCapital | 40Good | 64Moderate | 62Moderate | 52Moderate |
| BloemfonteinCapital | 32Good | 24Good | 28Good | 42Good |
| Benoni | 53Moderate | 70Moderate | 68Moderate | 61Moderate |
AQI: US EPA 24-hour PM2.5 scale (2024). Model forecast for an area of about 40 km, not a local measurement. Local levels can be higher or lower. Dates are UTC days. Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | Drier in 11 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 25% less rain on average) | +0.7 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | No consistent pattern (about 23% less rain on average) | +0.7 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | Drier in 7 of 10 El Niño seasons (about 22% less rain on average) | +0.8 °C | |
| Mar–May | No consistent pattern (about 20% less rain on average) | +1.0 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | No consistent pattern (about 4% more rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| May–Jul | No consistent pattern (about 22% more rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | Wetter in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 31% more rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | No consistent pattern (about 34% more rain on average) | -0.0 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | No consistent pattern (about 21% more rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | No consistent pattern (about 12% less rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | Drier in 11 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 20% less rain on average) | +0.4 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | Drier in 13 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 25% less rain on average) | +0.5 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
Known El Niño effects in South Africa
From national agencies and the UN. Each line links to its source.
- Past events
- El Niño does not always mean drought: in 1997–98 a drier-than-normal summer was expected in South Africa but did not happen. Climate.gov, 'Can We Blame El Niño?' (archived page, 2009)
What you can do
If it turns out drier
- Follow water-use notices from your local water utility, and fix leaks early.
- Farmers: check planting advice and drought bulletins from the national agriculture and weather services before the season.
- Clear dry vegetation near homes where wildfires are possible, and know your local fire-danger rating.
- Keep a few days of drinking water stored if supply cuts have happened in past dry years.
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for South Africa”, How's the Climate, https://howstheclimate.org/country/south-africa/, updated 15 November 2026.
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