Southern Africa
Rainfall and temperature odds for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season, for all 5 countries and territories.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Drier / normal / wetter | Past El Niños | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botswana | Likely drier | 75% / 11% / 14% |
13 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
| Kingdom of eSwatini | Leaning drier | 45% / 35% / 20% |
13 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
| Lesotho | Likely drier | 67% / 17% / 16% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Namibia | Likely drier | 75% / 13% / 12% |
11 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
| South Africa | Likely drier | 71% / 25% / <5% |
11 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (seasonal forecast, ERA5); NOAA Climate Prediction Center (El Niño seasons). Methods