El Niño Advisory Oceanic Niño Index +2.46 °C · very strong NOAA, 12 November 2026 Next update 10 December 2026
How's the Climate
Regional six-month outlook

Northern Europe

Rainfall and temperature odds for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season, for all 15 countries and territories.

CountryRainfall, December–FebruaryDrier / normal / wetterPast El NiñosTemperature
Denmark Likely wetter 22% / 25% / 53% No clear pattern Likely warmer
Estonia Leaning wetter 16% / 37% / 47% No clear pattern Likely warmer
Faeroe Islands Leaning drier 45% / 26% / 29% No clear pattern Likely warmer
Finland Leaning wetter 20% / 35% / 45% No clear pattern Likely warmer
Guernsey Likely wetter 8% / 27% / 65% No clear pattern Likely warmer
Iceland Likely drier 57% / 31% / 12% No clear pattern Leaning warmer
Ireland No clear signal 22% / 43% / 35% No clear pattern Likely warmer
Isle of Man Leaning wetter 10% / 45% / 45% No clear pattern Likely warmer
Jersey Likely wetter 8% / 27% / 65% No clear pattern Likely warmer
Latvia Likely wetter 24% / 21% / 55% No clear pattern Likely warmer
Lithuania Likely wetter 22% / 21% / 57% No clear pattern Likely warmer
Norway No clear signal 35% / 38% / 27% No clear pattern Likely warmer
Sweden Likely wetter 29% / 12% / 59% No clear pattern Likely warmer
United Kingdom No clear signal 18% / 43% / 39% No clear pattern Likely warmer
Åland Islands Likely wetter 14% / 31% / 55% No clear pattern Likely warmer

Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (seasonal forecast, ERA5); NOAA Climate Prediction Center (El Niño seasons). Methods