Northern Africa
Rainfall and temperature odds for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season, for all 7 countries and territories.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Drier / normal / wetter | Past El Niños | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algeria | Likely drier | 55% / 25% / 20% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Egypt | Leaning drier | 43% / 30% / 27% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Libya | Likely drier | 67% / 17% / 16% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Morocco | Leaning wetter | 27% / 28% / 45% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Sudan | No clear signal | 27% / 40% / 33% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Tunisia | Likely drier | 69% / 17% / 14% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Western Sahara | Leaning wetter | 24% / 33% / 43% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (seasonal forecast, ERA5); NOAA Climate Prediction Center (El Niño seasons). Methods