Southern Europe
Rainfall and temperature odds for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season, for all 15 countries and territories.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Drier / normal / wetter | Past El Niños | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | Leaning wetter | 22% / 31% / 47% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Andorra | Leaning wetter | 27% / 28% / 45% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | Likely wetter | 16% / 33% / 51% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Croatia | Likely wetter | 14% / 27% / 59% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Greece | Likely drier | 51% / 27% / 22% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Italy | Leaning wetter | 27% / 32% / 41% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Kosovo | Leaning wetter | 18% / 33% / 49% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Malta | Likely drier | 67% / 23% / 10% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Montenegro | Likely wetter | 14% / 31% / 55% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| North Macedonia | No clear signal | 24% / 37% / 39% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Portugal | Likely wetter | 14% / 19% / 67% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| San Marino | Leaning wetter | 22% / 33% / 45% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Serbia | Likely wetter | 18% / 27% / 55% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Slovenia | Likely wetter | 8% / 35% / 57% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Spain | Likely wetter | 18% / 19% / 63% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (seasonal forecast, ERA5); NOAA Climate Prediction Center (El Niño seasons). Methods