China
Odds favour a wetter-than-normal December–February in China (86% chance). That matches the past: 11 of 15 El Niño seasons since 1980 were wetter than usual here.
Likely wetter
<5% drier · 14% normal · 86% wetter
Likely warmer
76% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
11 of 15 wetter
+19% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
225 Very Unhealthy
Worst day: Beijing, 16 November 2026
Current events in China
- Air qualitySeriousUnhealthy air forecast in Beijing, China. Reading: AQI 278 on 2026-11-14. Started 14 November 2026.Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring ServiceUpdated 14 Nov, 00:00 UTC
- Air qualityAdvisoryUnhealthy air forecast in Wuhan, China. Reading: AQI 176 on 2026-11-14. Started 14 November 2026.Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring ServiceUpdated 14 Nov, 00:00 UTC
- Air qualityAdvisoryUnhealthy air forecast in Shenzhen, China. Reading: AQI 151 on 2026-11-15. Started 15 November 2026.Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring ServiceUpdated 14 Nov, 00:00 UTC
- Air qualityAdvisoryUnhealthy air forecast in Shanghai, China. Reading: AQI 155 on 2026-11-16. Started 16 November 2026.Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring ServiceUpdated 14 Nov, 00:00 UTC
- Air qualityAdvisoryUnhealthy air forecast in Guangzhou, China. Reading: AQI 164 on 2026-11-15. Started 15 November 2026.Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring ServiceUpdated 14 Nov, 00:00 UTC
Not an official alert. Events from GDACS, NASA EONET and the Copernicus air-quality forecast, last 30 days.
Headlines about China
- Amid climate fear, a surprise. Emissions are down for 2026stcatharinesstandard.ca · 15 Nov
- COP31 Renewable Supply Chains: China Controls 85% of Solar Manufacturing as India, US and Europe Face Higher Costsgreentechlead.com · 15 Nov
- COP31 Battery Storage Crisis: Solar Expansion Outpaces Grid Flexibility as 4,400 GW of Projects Await Connectionsgreentechlead.com · 15 Nov
- Climate Change: Global droughts expose Texas dinosaur tracks, Yangtze statues, revealing climate change's surprising impact on archaeologyindiatimes.com · 15 Nov
- The climate card China has yet to playpostcourier.com.pg · 15 Nov
- Solar panels pulled off roofs after more than a decade outdoors gave up their silver at better than 99 percent purity under a laser, using an estimated 84 percent less power than standard recyclingecoportal.net · 15 Nov
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
Away from the tropics, seasonal rainfall forecasts have limited skill. Treat small shifts in the odds as weak signals. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What China emits, and how it makes electricity
China emitted 12,417.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry in 2025, 31.84% of the world total, or 8.8 tonnes per person. That is up 399% since 1990.
12,417.5 Mt
8.8 t
+399%
+110%
Electricity by source, 2025
- Coal 54%
- Gas 3%
- Other fossil <1%
- Nuclear 5%
- Hydro 13%
- Wind 11%
- Solar 11%
- Other renewables 2%
Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project, Ember and the Energy Institute (CC BY 4.0). CO2 from fossil fuels and industry; land use not included.
Smoke and haze, next 4 days
Daily average fine particles (PM2.5) on the US EPA air-quality index.
| City | Nov 15 | Nov 16 | Nov 17 | Nov 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BeijingCapital | 192Unhealthy | 225Very unhealthy | 198Unhealthy | 155Unhealthy |
| Shanghai | 107Sensitive | 155Unhealthy | 120Sensitive | 86Moderate |
| Guangzhou | 164Unhealthy | 160Unhealthy | 140Sensitive | 76Moderate |
| Shenzhen | 151Unhealthy | 88Moderate | 85Moderate | 74Moderate |
| Wuhan | 159Unhealthy | 157Unhealthy | 141Sensitive | 85Moderate |
AQI: US EPA 24-hour PM2.5 scale (2024). Model forecast for an area of about 40 km, not a local measurement. Local levels can be higher or lower. Dates are UTC days. Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | Wetter in 11 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 19% more rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | Wetter in 11 of 13 El Niño seasons (about 13% more rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | Wetter in 8 of 10 El Niño seasons (about 13% more rain on average) | -0.0 °C | |
| Mar–May | Wetter in 7 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 11% more rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | No consistent pattern (about 2% more rain on average) | -0.2 °C | |
| May–Jul | No consistent pattern (about 2% less rain on average) | -0.4 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | No consistent pattern (about 3% less rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | No consistent pattern (about 3% less rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | No consistent pattern (about 6% less rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | No consistent pattern (about 4% less rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | No consistent pattern (about 5% more rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | Wetter in 11 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 18% more rain on average) | +0.0 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
What you can do
If it turns out wetter
- Find out whether your home, school or workplace is in a flood-risk area, and know your evacuation route.
- Clear gutters and drains before the rainy months.
- Keep important documents, medicines and a torch in a waterproof bag.
- After heavy rain, avoid walking or driving through flood water and follow local advice on drinking water and mosquito-borne disease.
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
On smoky or hazy days
- Check the daily air-quality forecast and cut down hard outdoor exercise when it is 'Unhealthy' or worse.
- A well-fitted N95 or KN95 mask reduces smoke exposure; cloth and surgical masks do much less.
- Keep windows closed and use an air purifier with a HEPA filter if you have one.
- People with asthma, heart or lung disease, older people, children and pregnant people should take extra care.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for China”, The Climate Map, https://howstheclimate.org/country/china/, updated 15 November 2026.
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