Nepal
There is no clear El Niño rainfall signal for Nepal in December–February. The forecast and the historical record are both close to normal.
No clear signal
33% drier · 40% normal · 27% wetter
Likely warmer
88% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
No clear pattern
+21% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
224 Very Unhealthy
Worst day: Biratnagar, 15 November 2026
Current events in Nepal
- Air qualitySeriousUnhealthy air forecast in Biratnagar, Nepal. Reading: AQI 224 on 2026-11-15. Started 14 November 2026.Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring ServiceUpdated 14 Nov, 00:00 UTC
- Air qualityAdvisoryUnhealthy air forecast in Lalitpur, Nepal. Reading: AQI 188 on 2026-11-14. Started 14 November 2026.Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring ServiceUpdated 14 Nov, 00:00 UTC
- Air qualityAdvisoryUnhealthy air forecast in Kathmandu, Nepal. Reading: AQI 188 on 2026-11-14. Started 14 November 2026.Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring ServiceUpdated 14 Nov, 00:00 UTC
- Air qualityAdvisoryUnhealthy air forecast in Hetauda, Nepal. Reading: AQI 188 on 2026-11-14. Started 14 November 2026.Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring ServiceUpdated 14 Nov, 00:00 UTC
Not an official alert. Events from GDACS, NASA EONET and the Copernicus air-quality forecast, last 30 days.
Headlines about Nepal
- Science must guide climate decisions on the Himalayas: Expertdailypioneer.com · 14 Nov
- British charity uses drone to deliver desperately-needed aid in flood-stricken Nepalmirror.co.uk · 14 Nov
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
Away from the tropics, seasonal rainfall forecasts have limited skill. Treat small shifts in the odds as weak signals. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What Nepal emits, and how it makes electricity
Nepal emitted 16.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry in 2025, 0.04% of the world total, or 0.5 tonnes per person. That is up 2105% since 1990.
16.1 Mt
0.5 t
+2105%
+408%
Electricity by source, 2024
- Hydro 99%
- Wind <1%
- Solar 1%
Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project, Ember and the Energy Institute (CC BY 4.0). CO2 from fossil fuels and industry; land use not included.
Smoke and haze, next 4 days
Daily average fine particles (PM2.5) on the US EPA air-quality index.
| City | Nov 15 | Nov 16 | Nov 17 | Nov 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KathmanduCapital | 173Unhealthy | 130Sensitive | 134Sensitive | 144Sensitive |
| Lalitpur | 173Unhealthy | 130Sensitive | 134Sensitive | 144Sensitive |
| Hetauda | 173Unhealthy | 130Sensitive | 134Sensitive | 144Sensitive |
| Pokhara | 68Moderate | 70Moderate | 78Moderate | 98Moderate |
| Biratnagar | 224Very unhealthy | 183Unhealthy | 184Unhealthy | 186Unhealthy |
AQI: US EPA 24-hour PM2.5 scale (2024). Model forecast for an area of about 40 km, not a local measurement. Local levels can be higher or lower. Dates are UTC days. Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | No consistent pattern (about 21% more rain on average) | -0.5 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | No consistent pattern (about 17% more rain on average) | -0.5 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | No consistent pattern (about 4% more rain on average) | -0.3 °C | |
| Mar–May | No consistent pattern (about 5% less rain on average) | -0.2 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | Drier in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 16% less rain on average) | -0.4 °C | |
| May–Jul | Drier in 9 of 9 El Niño seasons (about 20% less rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | Drier in 7 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 9% less rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | Drier in 8 of 9 El Niño seasons (about 11% less rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | Drier in 10 of 12 El Niño seasons (about 10% less rain on average) | -0.4 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | Drier in 12 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 15% less rain on average) | -0.5 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | No consistent pattern (about 1% less rain on average) | -0.7 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | Wetter in 11 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 21% more rain on average) | -0.4 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
What you can do
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
On smoky or hazy days
- Check the daily air-quality forecast and cut down hard outdoor exercise when it is 'Unhealthy' or worse.
- A well-fitted N95 or KN95 mask reduces smoke exposure; cloth and surgical masks do much less.
- Keep windows closed and use an air purifier with a HEPA filter if you have one.
- People with asthma, heart or lung disease, older people, children and pregnant people should take extra care.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for Nepal”, The Climate Map, https://howstheclimate.org/country/nepal/, updated 15 November 2026.
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