Western Africa
Rainfall and temperature odds for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season, for all 16 countries and territories.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Drier / normal / wetter | Past El Niños | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benin | Leaning drier | 49% / 39% / 12% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Burkina Faso | No clear signal | 31% / 51% / 18% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Côte d'Ivoire | Likely drier | 59% / 33% / 8% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Ghana | Likely drier | 75% / 21% / <5% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Guinea | Leaning drier | 47% / 22% / 31% |
12 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
| Guinea-Bissau | Leaning wetter | 31% / 28% / 41% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Liberia | Likely drier | 67% / 25% / 8% |
11 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
| Mali | No clear signal | 29% / 32% / 39% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Mauritania | Leaning wetter | 37% / 22% / 41% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Niger | Likely drier | 55% / 21% / 24% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Nigeria | Likely drier | 55% / 29% / 16% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Republic of Cabo Verde | No clear signal | 37% / 26% / 37% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Senegal | Leaning wetter | 27% / 24% / 49% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Sierra Leone | Likely drier | 61% / 29% / 10% |
12 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
| The Gambia | Leaning wetter | 27% / 26% / 47% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Togo | Likely drier | 63% / 31% / 6% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (seasonal forecast, ERA5); NOAA Climate Prediction Center (El Niño seasons). Methods