Central America
Rainfall and temperature odds for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season, for all 8 countries and territories.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Drier / normal / wetter | Past El Niños | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belize | Likely drier | 90% / 8% / <5% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Costa Rica | Likely drier | 63% / 35% / <5% |
12 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
| El Salvador | Leaning drier | 47% / 22% / 31% |
11 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
| Guatemala | Likely drier | 90% / 8% / <5% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Honduras | Likely drier | 92% / 6% / <5% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Mexico | Leaning wetter | 24% / 29% / 47% |
No clear pattern | Leaning warmer |
| Nicaragua | Likely drier | >95% / <5% / <5% |
13 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
| Panama | Likely drier | 73% / 25% / <5% |
14 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (seasonal forecast, ERA5); NOAA Climate Prediction Center (El Niño seasons). Methods