Guatemala
Odds favour a drier-than-normal December–February in Guatemala (90% chance). Past El Niño years show no consistent rainfall pattern here.
Likely drier
90% drier · 8% normal · <5% wetter
Likely warmer
>95% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
No clear pattern
-8% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
135 Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Worst day: Quetzaltenango, 15 November 2026
Current events in Guatemala
No current flood, drought, cyclone, large wildfire or unhealthy-air event is listed for Guatemala in our sources.
Headlines about Guatemala
- When the rains fail: Preparing for drought in Central Americaglobalissues.org · 14 Nov
- Central America Prepares for Drought as Rains Failmiragenews.com · 14 Nov
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
In the tropics, seasonal forecasts generally have useful skill during strong El Niño years, but they give odds, not certainties. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What Guatemala emits, and how it makes electricity
Guatemala emitted 21.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry in 2025, 0.06% of the world total, or 1.1 tonnes per person. That is up 352% since 1990.
21.3 Mt
1.1 t
+352%
+77%
Electricity by source, 2024
- Coal 16%
- Other fossil 16%
- Hydro 40%
- Wind 2%
- Solar 2%
- Other renewables 24%
Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project, Ember and the Energy Institute (CC BY 4.0). CO2 from fossil fuels and industry; land use not included.
Smoke and haze, next 4 days
Daily average fine particles (PM2.5) on the US EPA air-quality index.
| City | Nov 15 | Nov 16 | Nov 17 | Nov 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guatemala CityCapital | 70Moderate | 64Moderate | 52Moderate | 48Good |
| Quetzaltenango | 135Sensitive | 99Moderate | 99Moderate | 83Moderate |
| El Progreso | 52Moderate | 42Good | 30Good | 43Good |
| San Luis | 32Good | 17Good | 8Good | 7Good |
| Escuintla | 96Moderate | 110Sensitive | 112Sensitive | 95Moderate |
AQI: US EPA 24-hour PM2.5 scale (2024). Model forecast for an area of about 40 km, not a local measurement. Local levels can be higher or lower. Dates are UTC days. Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | No consistent pattern (about 8% less rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | No consistent pattern (about 14% less rain on average) | +0.4 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | No consistent pattern (about 1% more rain on average) | +0.4 °C | |
| Mar–May | Drier in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 22% less rain on average) | +0.5 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | Drier in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 9% less rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| May–Jul | Drier in 7 of 9 El Niño seasons (about 10% less rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | Drier in 7 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 15% less rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | Drier in 8 of 9 El Niño seasons (about 16% less rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | Drier in 10 of 12 El Niño seasons (about 20% less rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | No consistent pattern (about 10% less rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | No consistent pattern (about 6% less rain on average) | +0.4 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | No consistent pattern (about 0% less rain on average) | +0.4 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
What you can do
If it turns out drier
- Follow water-use notices from your local water utility, and fix leaks early.
- Farmers: check planting advice and drought bulletins from the national agriculture and weather services before the season.
- Clear dry vegetation near homes where wildfires are possible, and know your local fire-danger rating.
- Keep a few days of drinking water stored if supply cuts have happened in past dry years.
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
On smoky or hazy days
- Check the daily air-quality forecast and cut down hard outdoor exercise when it is 'Unhealthy' or worse.
- A well-fitted N95 or KN95 mask reduces smoke exposure; cloth and surgical masks do much less.
- Keep windows closed and use an air purifier with a HEPA filter if you have one.
- People with asthma, heart or lung disease, older people, children and pregnant people should take extra care.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for Guatemala”, The Climate Map, https://howstheclimate.org/country/guatemala/, updated 15 November 2026.
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