Melanesia
Rainfall and temperature odds for December–February, and what past El Niños did in the same season, for all 5 countries and territories.
| Country | Rainfall, December–February | Drier / normal / wetter | Past El Niños | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiji | Likely drier | >95% / <5% / <5% |
12 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
| New Caledonia | Likely drier | 63% / 25% / 12% |
13 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
| Papua New Guinea | Likely wetter | 8% / <5% / 90% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Solomon Islands | Leaning wetter | 14% / 39% / 47% |
No clear pattern | Likely warmer |
| Vanuatu | Likely drier | 90% / 10% / <5% |
11 of 15 drier | Likely warmer |
Sources: Copernicus Climate Change Service (seasonal forecast, ERA5); NOAA Climate Prediction Center (El Niño seasons). Methods