Saint-Martin
Odds favour a wetter-than-normal December–February in Saint-Martin (53% chance). Past El Niño years show no consistent rainfall pattern here.
Likely wetter
22% drier · 25% normal · 53% wetter
Likely warmer
>95% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
No clear pattern
-3% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
No city forecast
No major city in our air-quality list
Current events in Saint-Martin
No current flood, drought, cyclone, large wildfire or unhealthy-air event is listed for Saint-Martin in our sources.
Headlines about Saint-Martin
No climate headlines mentioning Saint-Martin were found in the last two weeks.
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
In the tropics, seasonal forecasts generally have useful skill during strong El Niño years, but they give odds, not certainties. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere. This place is smaller than one forecast grid cell, so the nearest cell is used.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | No consistent pattern (about 3% less rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | No consistent pattern (about 14% more rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | No consistent pattern (about 23% more rain on average) | +0.4 °C | |
| Mar–May | Wetter in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 47% more rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | No consistent pattern (about 26% more rain on average) | +0.0 °C | |
| May–Jul | No consistent pattern (about 15% more rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | No consistent pattern (about 15% less rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | No consistent pattern (about 19% less rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | No consistent pattern (about 14% less rain on average) | +0.0 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | No consistent pattern (about 13% less rain on average) | +0.0 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | No consistent pattern (about 5% less rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | No consistent pattern (about 7% less rain on average) | +0.1 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
What you can do
If it turns out wetter
- Find out whether your home, school or workplace is in a flood-risk area, and know your evacuation route.
- Clear gutters and drains before the rainy months.
- Keep important documents, medicines and a torch in a waterproof bag.
- After heavy rain, avoid walking or driving through flood water and follow local advice on drinking water and mosquito-borne disease.
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for Saint-Martin”, How's the Climate, https://howstheclimate.org/country/st-martin/, updated 15 November 2026.
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