United States
Odds favour a wetter-than-normal December–February in the United States (80% chance). That matches the past: 12 of 15 El Niño seasons since 1980 were wetter than usual here.
Likely wetter
<5% drier · 18% normal · 80% wetter
Likely warmer
57% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
12 of 15 wetter
+8% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
76 Moderate
Worst day: Washington, D.C., 18 November 2026
Current events in the United States
- WildfireAdvisoryWildfire in United States. Burned area: 416 ha. Started 29 October 2026.NASA EONETUpdated 29 Oct, 11:37 UTC
- WildfireAdvisoryWildfire in United States. Burned area: 405 ha. Started 28 October 2026.NASA EONETUpdated 28 Oct, 18:02 UTC
- WildfireAdvisoryWildfire in United States. Burned area: 834 ha. Started 22 October 2026.NASA EONETUpdated 22 Oct, 21:45 UTC
- WildfireAdvisoryWildfire in United States. Burned area: 805 ha. Started 21 October 2026.NASA EONETUpdated 21 Oct, 15:57 UTC
- WildfireAdvisoryWildfire in United States. Burned area: 1,054 ha. Started 18 October 2026.NASA EONETUpdated 18 Oct, 08:25 UTC
Not an official alert. Events from GDACS, NASA EONET and the Copernicus air-quality forecast, last 30 days.
Headlines about the United States
- Austin weather: Cold front brings chilly temperatures, gusty winds, and heavy rainfallfox7austin.com · 15 Nov
- Bluff Council holds special meeting to address flood impactssjrnews.com · 15 Nov
- Florida coastal counties face potential heavy rain and floodswftv.com · 15 Nov
- Every region of world is getting closer to critical climate thresholdazernews.az · 15 Nov
- They fought wildfires while in prison, but hit roadblocks pursuing careers on the outsidetimes-standard.com · 15 Nov
- Downpours slam Texas, fueling final weekend flash flood threat as powerful Pacific storm energy pushes eastaol.com · 15 Nov
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
Away from the tropics, seasonal rainfall forecasts have limited skill. Treat small shifts in the odds as weak signals. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What the United States emits, and how it makes electricity
The United States emitted 5,035.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry in 2025, 12.91% of the world total, or 14.5 tonnes per person. That is down 2% since 1990.
5,035.6 Mt
14.5 t
-2%
-18%
Electricity by source, 2025
- Coal 16%
- Gas 40%
- Other fossil <1%
- Nuclear 17%
- Hydro 5%
- Wind 10%
- Solar 9%
- Other renewables 1%
Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project, Ember and the Energy Institute (CC BY 4.0). CO2 from fossil fuels and industry; land use not included.
Smoke and haze, next 4 days
Daily average fine particles (PM2.5) on the US EPA air-quality index.
| City | Nov 15 | Nov 16 | Nov 17 | Nov 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington, D.C.Capital | 11Good | 24Good | 55Moderate | 76Moderate |
| New York | 14Good | 31Good | 58Moderate | 63Moderate |
| Los Angeles | 60Moderate | 69Moderate | 57Moderate | 60Moderate |
| Chicago | 43Good | 75Moderate | 61Moderate | 55Moderate |
| Miami | 46Good | 45Good | 41Good | 28Good |
AQI: US EPA 24-hour PM2.5 scale (2024). Model forecast for an area of about 40 km, not a local measurement. Local levels can be higher or lower. Dates are UTC days. Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | Wetter in 12 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 8% more rain on average) | +0.6 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | No consistent pattern (about 7% more rain on average) | +0.6 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | No consistent pattern (about 7% more rain on average) | +0.6 °C | |
| Mar–May | Wetter in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 8% more rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | No consistent pattern (about 7% more rain on average) | -0.2 °C | |
| May–Jul | No consistent pattern (about 6% more rain on average) | -0.2 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | No consistent pattern (about 1% less rain on average) | -0.2 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | No consistent pattern (about 1% less rain on average) | -0.1 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | No consistent pattern (about 7% more rain on average) | -0.2 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | No consistent pattern (about 10% more rain on average) | -0.2 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | Wetter in 12 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 14% more rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | Wetter in 12 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 10% more rain on average) | +0.3 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
Known El Niño effects in the United States
From national agencies and the UN. Each line links to its source.
- Typical pattern
El Niño winters can bring wetter-than-normal conditions to the southern U.S. from December to March. Climate.gov, 'Can We Blame El Niño?' (archived page, 2009)
What you can do
If it turns out wetter
- Find out whether your home, school or workplace is in a flood-risk area, and know your evacuation route.
- Clear gutters and drains before the rainy months.
- Keep important documents, medicines and a torch in a waterproof bag.
- After heavy rain, avoid walking or driving through flood water and follow local advice on drinking water and mosquito-borne disease.
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for the United States”, How's the Climate, https://howstheclimate.org/country/united-states-of-america/, updated 15 November 2026.
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