Philippines
Odds favour a drier-than-normal December–February in the Philippines (over 95% chance). That matches the past: 15 of 15 El Niño seasons since 1980 were drier than usual here.
Likely drier
>95% drier · <5% normal · <5% wetter
Likely warmer
>95% chance of warmer than 1993–2016
15 of 15 drier
-52% rainfall on average, 1979-2025
62 Moderate
Worst day: Manila, 17 November 2026
Current events in the Philippines
No current flood, drought, cyclone, large wildfire or unhealthy-air event is listed for the Philippines in our sources.
Headlines about the Philippines
- Asean FMs urge speedy operationalisation of transboundary haze control hubthestar.com.my · 15 Nov
- ASEAN Summit Day 1: South China Sea, Indonesia haze, Myanmar reviewphilstar.com · 15 Nov
- El Niño seen disrupting fish migration patternsbworldonline.com · 15 Nov
- D&L unit develops renewable alternative to petroleum-based paint additivesbworldonline.com · 15 Nov
- PM Wong pushes for ASEAN-wide crackdown on firms behind forest firesasiaone.com · 15 Nov
- Baguio braces vs Super El Niño as tourism boom, water demand test supplybworldonline.com · 15 Nov
Found through the GDELT Project by climate words in the headline. We do not write or check these articles.
The next six months
Odds of each outcome compared with the 1993–2016 average.
December–February
February–April
In the tropics, seasonal forecasts generally have useful skill during strong El Niño years, but they give odds, not certainties. “Normal” is the middle third of the model's own 1993–2016 range. Because the climate has warmed since then, “warmer” is the usual result almost everywhere.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, country average. Method
What the Philippines emits, and how it makes electricity
The Philippines emitted 169.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry in 2025, 0.43% of the world total, or 1.4 tonnes per person. That is up 310% since 1990.
169.2 Mt
1.4 t
+310%
+134%
Electricity by source, 2025
- Coal 59%
- Gas 17%
- Other fossil <1%
- Hydro 10%
- Wind 1%
- Solar 2%
- Other renewables 9%
Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project, Ember and the Energy Institute (CC BY 4.0). CO2 from fossil fuels and industry; land use not included.
Smoke and haze, next 4 days
Daily average fine particles (PM2.5) on the US EPA air-quality index.
| City | Nov 15 | Nov 16 | Nov 17 | Nov 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ManilaCapital | 62Moderate | 58Moderate | 62Moderate | 52Moderate |
| BaguioCapital | 51Moderate | 49Good | 56Moderate | 53Moderate |
| Quezon City | 40Good | 39Good | 43Good | 29Good |
| Davao | 26Good | 24Good | 47Good | 27Good |
| Cagayan de Oro | 26Good | 23Good | 40Good | 22Good |
AQI: US EPA 24-hour PM2.5 scale (2024). Model forecast for an area of about 40 km, not a local measurement. Local levels can be higher or lower. Dates are UTC days. Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
What past El Niños did here
Each season in El Niño years compared with all other years, 1979-2025, trend removed.
| Season | Rainfall | Rainfall detail | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec–Feb | Drier in 15 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 52% less rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Jan–Mar | Drier in 13 of 13 El Niño seasons (about 64% less rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Feb–Apr | Drier in 10 of 10 El Niño seasons (about 68% less rain on average) | +0.3 °C | |
| Mar–May | Drier in 8 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 50% less rain on average) | +0.4 °C | |
| Apr–Jun | Drier in 8 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 24% less rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| May–Jul | Drier in 7 of 9 El Niño seasons (about 11% less rain on average) | +0.2 °C | |
| Jun–Aug | Drier in 6 of 8 El Niño seasons (about 5% less rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Jul–Sep | Drier in 7 of 9 El Niño seasons (about 5% less rain on average) | +0.0 °C | |
| Aug–Oct | Drier in 11 of 12 El Niño seasons (about 13% less rain on average) | +0.0 °C | |
| Sep–Nov | Drier in 13 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 23% less rain on average) | +0.0 °C | |
| Oct–Dec | Drier in 14 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 33% less rain on average) | +0.1 °C | |
| Nov–Jan | Drier in 14 of 15 El Niño seasons (about 38% less rain on average) | +0.2 °C |
Bars: brown is drier, teal is wetter; full width is ±100%. Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Change Service); El Niño seasons from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Method
Known El Niño effects in the Philippines
From national agencies and the UN. Each line links to its source.
- Typical pattern
PAGASA says El Niño raises the chance of below-normal rainfall in the Philippines, which can bring dry spells and drought to some areas (advisory of January 2024). PAGASA, ENSO Advisory No. 7 (January 2024)
- Past events
- During the 1997 El Niño, Angat Dam fell to 185.58 m against a normal 212 m, and Pantabangan Dam was 39.3 m below its desired level. Berja, J. G. Jr. (1998), El Niño Damage Assessment in Central Luzon, ACRS 1998 (conference paper)
- In the 2015–16 El Niño, Sarangani received 40–80% of its normal rainfall for seven months, and Zamboanga City declared a state of calamity on 12 January. OCHA, Philippines Humanitarian Bulletin Issue 1 (Dec 2015–Jan 2016)
- By 1 May 2024, the government counted about 2.97 million people (695,149 families) in 3,905 barangays affected by El Niño. DSWD, DROMIC Report #46 on the Effects of El Niño (as of 1 May 2024), via ReliefWeb
- Most exposed
The OCHA bulletin calls Region XII (South Cotabato, North Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, Sarangani) Mindanao's breadbasket, and reports it was hit by a prolonged dry spell. OCHA, Philippines Humanitarian Bulletin Issue 1 (Dec 2015–Jan 2016)
PAGASA warns that El Niño can harm water supply, agriculture, energy, health and public safety. PAGASA, ENSO Advisory No. 7 (January 2024)
What you can do
If it turns out drier
- Follow water-use notices from your local water utility, and fix leaks early.
- Farmers: check planting advice and drought bulletins from the national agriculture and weather services before the season.
- Clear dry vegetation near homes where wildfires are possible, and know your local fire-danger rating.
- Keep a few days of drinking water stored if supply cuts have happened in past dry years.
If it turns out hotter
- Check on older relatives, neighbours and anyone who lives alone during hot spells.
- Drink water regularly, and avoid hard outdoor work in the hottest hours.
- Know the signs of heat exhaustion (dizziness, headache, nausea) and when to get medical help.
Data and citation
- El Niño status: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 12 November 2026.
- Seasonal outlook: Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts, ECMWF system 51, issued November 2026.
- Air quality: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, run 2026-11-14 00 UTC.
- Past El Niños: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), 1979-2025; NOAA Oceanic Niño Index.
Cite as: “Seasonal outlook for the Philippines”, The Climate Map, https://howstheclimate.org/country/philippines/, updated 15 November 2026.
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